Reading a Swing Booth Correctly
15 April 2026 · 5 min read
A close historical margin doesn't automatically make a booth winnable this cycle. Turnout composition, scheme-benefit penetration and candidate-specific sentiment all shift the real number.
The booths worth the resource are the ones where the model and the ground survey agree — not just where the arithmetic looks close on a spreadsheet.
Getting this wrong is the single most common way campaigns overspend on ground operations in seats that were never actually in play.